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15January 2008
Bangkok
Rising oil prices, the spread of the sub-prime credit issue in international markets, and the slow down in the US economy are all taking their toll on the confidence of the world’s consumers. According to the latest Global Consumer Confidence Study conducted by The Nielsen Company, more than a quarter of global consumers expect a global recession in 2008, resulting in a dip in confidence in 21 of the 48 markets Nielsen surveyed.
Thai consumer confidence remains at the same level as the last six months survey ( 92 ) while global average has declined continually with an Index of 94 in the second half of 2007, down from 97 in May 2007, and 99 in the same period of 2006
Thailand has topped the global ranking with most people (51%) anticipating a global recession in the next 12 months followed by Taiwan (47%) and Italy (45%) respectively.
Globally, Norway superseded India as the world’s most optimistic market with a CI score of 135, up two points from the May survey. India ranked second at 133, representing a dip for the third consecutive round since its peak score of 137 in late 2006. Scoring 124 this time round, Denmark ranked a distant third, a position it has maintained for the past three rounds of the survey.
In addition to India, Asia Pacific markets including Indonesia, Australia, Hong Kong, Vietnam, New Zealand and Singapore were all among the world’s top 10 most optimistic - with Indonesia, Australia and Singapore in particular registering an increase in consumer confidence levels – making Asia Pacific the most optimistic region worldwide.
“In the world’s leading economy of the US, consumer confidence has seen a continual decline from late 2006 on the back of a number of negative economic indicators such as the anticipated economic slowdown, the weak Dollar, rising oil prices and the sub-prime issue creating increased debt for consumers,” said Chantira Luesakul Managing Director of ACNielsen (Thailand),The Nielsen Company . “The unfavorable economic environment in the US is clearly having an impact on economies in the rest of the world, resulting in less upbeat consumer sentiment elsewhere, including Thailand.”
Thais were pessimistic over local job prospects
64 percent of Thai consumers believed that the job prospects over the next 12 months would be “not so good (55%) and bad (9%) and 44 percent of them are not confident with the state of their personal finances over the next year. Their thoughts and feelings on job prospects and personal finances were about the same from the previous survey in May 2007.
Saving continues to be the main priority for Thai consumers
When asked about spending intention, 66 percent of them believed that it is now “not so good” and “bad” time to buy things they want over the next 12 months. After covering essential living expenses, putting money in saving continues to be the strongest desire for 64 percent of Thai consumers, ranking third in the world after Indonesia and Singapore (both 65%). Additionally, only six percent of Thai consumers said they have no spare cash.
Besides saving, Vacations (50%), new technology (38%) and new clothes (30%) are the popular spending options for Thai consumers.
“Consumers around the world are cautious about spending – of the 48 markets surveyed, 26 recorded a continuing decline in their readiness to spend, compared to six months ago – an important signal for retailers who will need to put in extra effort to entice consumers to loosen their purse strings for this challenging year” added Ms Chantira
“The Economy” has been indicated as the most major concern
Like consumers around the world, “The Economy” has been indicated as the major concern for Thai consumers (68%) in the next six months ranking among the world top five and increasing from 59 percent over the previous survey. When they were asked what their biggest worry would be in the event of economic downturn. 47 percent said political instability, 43 percent said unemployment and 28 percent said inflation.
Taiwan (74%) tops the world with most people concerned about the state of the Economy in the next six months, followed by people in China (71%). In fact, seven of the top 10 markets most concerned about the Economy hail from Asia Pacific.
Among the Asia Pacific markets, people in China (63%), Hong Kong (49%) and Vietnam (48%) were most concerned about their health; while Vietnam (58%), South Korea (54%) and the Philippines (47%) ranked among the world’s top 10 most concerned about Job Security in the next twelve months.
The Least Optimistic
The world’s most pessimistic consumers hail mainly from Europe, although South Korea (54). Japan (59) and Taiwan (69) remain at the bottom of the list as far as the Asia region is concerned. Indeed, the situation in Japan and Taiwan continues to snow-ball, with consumers’ confidence levels further deteriorating from the beginning of the year.
The Survey
The latest survey, conducted from October to November in 2007, polled about 26,312 internet users in 48 markets from Europe, Asia Pacific, North America and the Middle East.
The Nielsen Online Consumer Confidence and Opinion Survey is the largest half-yearly survey of its kind, aimed at gauging current confidence levels, spending habits/intentions and current major concerns of consumers across the globe. The Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index is developed based on consumer’s confidence in the job market, status of their personal finance and their readiness to spend. In Thailand, 500 internet users aged 15 and above were interviewed
About The Nielsen Company
The Nielsen Company is a global information and media company with leading market positions in marketing information (ACNielsen), media information (Nielsen Media Research), online intelligence (NetRatings and BuzzMetrics), mobile measurement, trade shows and business publications (Billboard, The Hollywood Reporter, Adweek). The privately held company is active in more than 100 countries, with headquarters in Haarlem, the Netherlands, and New York, USA. For more information, please visit, www.nielsen.com
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